Think local roads versus big highways. Distribution is the wires and poles you see in your neighborhood. Transmission are the giant pylons and high voltage wires you see marching across the landscape.
Then why would distribution costs be increasing so substantially? I can see why increased use of wind and solar far from metro areas would lead to increasing transmission costs, but I cannot think of a change in urban areas that would create substantially increased distribution costs.
Deferred maintenance (finally getting done) and wildfire risk mitigation (that should’ve been done long ago) are two major drivers of distribution system cost increases.Neither of those impact transmission nearly as much (Because there are many fewer miles of transmission, and it is typically maintained at a much higher level leading to less issue with deferred maintenance and risk reduction)
I like Cooper's analogy--local roads VS interstate highways.
The EIA analysis has a good breakdown. A lot of it is older equipment being replaced or upgraded in some way (extreme weather/resiliency spend, and intermittency is mentioned). Then you have undergrounding lines and more expensive transformers (supply chain and manufacturing).
I'd be interested in how much the hardening of the system is done because of RCP8.5... Certainly, the wildfire risks are important in any scenario. But there are some extreme weather forecasts that are not particularly reliable. (I have a gift subscription, if you'd like one to The Honest Broker here: https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/the-apocalypse-machine-rolls-on).
On my list is to look at this RMI report to see if there is a kind of "regulatory arbitrage" happening. That is, local upgrades often do not undergo a cost-benefit analysis. So, a utility may be able to spend much more in local system upgrades without regulators stepping in. This would be a form of gold-plating, so it seems possible. And, it would also be an audience outside of the climate folks for outsized estimates of climate risks.
What is the difference between “distribution” and “transmission?” Can you give some examples of each?
Think local roads versus big highways. Distribution is the wires and poles you see in your neighborhood. Transmission are the giant pylons and high voltage wires you see marching across the landscape.
Then why would distribution costs be increasing so substantially? I can see why increased use of wind and solar far from metro areas would lead to increasing transmission costs, but I cannot think of a change in urban areas that would create substantially increased distribution costs.
Deferred maintenance (finally getting done) and wildfire risk mitigation (that should’ve been done long ago) are two major drivers of distribution system cost increases.Neither of those impact transmission nearly as much (Because there are many fewer miles of transmission, and it is typically maintained at a much higher level leading to less issue with deferred maintenance and risk reduction)
Others please correct me if I’ve got that wrong.
I like Cooper's analogy--local roads VS interstate highways.
The EIA analysis has a good breakdown. A lot of it is older equipment being replaced or upgraded in some way (extreme weather/resiliency spend, and intermittency is mentioned). Then you have undergrounding lines and more expensive transformers (supply chain and manufacturing).
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=63724
I'd be interested in how much the hardening of the system is done because of RCP8.5... Certainly, the wildfire risks are important in any scenario. But there are some extreme weather forecasts that are not particularly reliable. (I have a gift subscription, if you'd like one to The Honest Broker here: https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/the-apocalypse-machine-rolls-on).
On my list is to look at this RMI report to see if there is a kind of "regulatory arbitrage" happening. That is, local upgrades often do not undergo a cost-benefit analysis. So, a utility may be able to spend much more in local system upgrades without regulators stepping in. This would be a form of gold-plating, so it seems possible. And, it would also be an audience outside of the climate folks for outsized estimates of climate risks.
https://rmi.org/insight/mind-the-regulatory-gap
Dr. Gale Pooley, co-author of Superabundance, has the following substack on the price of KWH. https://newsletter.humanprogress.org/p/the-declining-time-price-of-kilowatt?r=2i0kgv&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Great analysis! For your next article, can you do the same breakdown for residential gas costs?